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SMS ROI Calculator

Your SMS list is leverage. Quantify it.

Americans exchanged nearly 2.2 trillion texts in 2024, according to CTIA, and in Hiya's 2026 survey across six countries, only 14% of consumers said they answer calls from unknown numbers right away. The trade-off is per-message cost and the STOP-rate cliff. This calculator quantifies both sides.

2.2T
US texts sent in 2024
86%
Don't answer unknown callers
Feb 2025
Unregistered 10DLC texts blocked
1 to 4 wks
Campaign review time

Sources: CTIA 2025 Annual Survey; Hiya, State of the Call 2026 (12,000+ consumers in six countries); Telnyx and RingCentral notices on blocking from February 3, 2025; The Campaign Registry (2026).

Estimated Monthly SMS Profit
$0
Net of carrier send cost. List opt-in assumed A2P 10DLC compliant.
0
Sends / Month
$0.00
Profit per send
$0
Annual run rate
Ecommerce DTC

Sets sensible defaults for the five inputs below. Override anything.

18,000

Mobile numbers opted-in to your A2P 10DLC registered list. Cleaned of STOPs and hard bounces.

Model default: 10k-25k
6

Broadcasts per subscriber per month. This model starts charging opt-out drag above 6.

Model default: 4-6 /mo
14%

% of recipients who tap the link. Use your own campaign reports if you have them.

Model default: 10-18%
6%

% of clicks that convert to a paid order or booked appointment. Pull this from your store or booking analytics.

Model default: 3-8%
$85 / $0.015
AOV $85
Per send $0.015

Average order value drives revenue. Per-message cost (carrier plus provider fees) varies by provider and message length.

Default AOV $50-150 · cost $0.012-0.020
Revenue per Send
$0.71
Gross revenue produced by one message to one subscriber.
Profit per Send
$0.70
Net of per-message carrier cost. The core unit economic.
Monthly Send Cost
$1,620
Total carrier and provider fees at your current cadence.
Annual Profit Run Rate
$0
Current monthly profit x 12. Excludes any list-growth compounding.
Send Cadence Optimizer (profit by frequency)
Profit curve Optimal cadence STOP-rate cliff
Optimal Cadence 5 / mo
Best send cadence for your list: 5 sends / month. That's where profit-per-month peaks before opt-out attrition starts eating your subscriber base faster than new growth.
A2P
A2P 10DLC Compliance, the part that determines whether you ship. Required to send commercial SMS to US numbers
Carrier Registration Required
Your brand and every campaign must be registered through your messaging provider with The Campaign Registry (TCR), then reviewed by the providers and carriers in the chain. Since February 3, 2025, unregistered 10DLC traffic is blocked. The registry says campaign review can take 1 to 4 weeks. Nirvani handles the filing.
Required Opt-In Language
CTIA's messaging guidelines call for clear consent (express written consent for marketing), and a call to action that names the program, who is texting, message frequency, msg and data rates, how to opt out (STOP) and get help (HELP), plus terms and a privacy policy. Skip pre-checked boxes and keep SMS consent separate from email.
Per-Message Cost Varies
Per-text pricing depends on your provider and message length, so get a quote and plug it in above. Registration has its own fees: The Campaign Registry's July 2026 price list shows $4.50 per brand submission and $10 a month for most campaign types ($1.50 for low volume), with a 3-month minimum. Your provider may add its own.
How You Compare With the Model Defaults
Model default You
Click-through rate % of recipients tapping the link
14%
Click-to-order conversion % of clickers who purchase
6%
Profit per send Net of carrier cost (higher is better)
$0.71
Profit per subscriber Monthly value of an opted-in number
$4.20
Send frequency Broadcasts per subscriber per month
6 /mo
Sensitivity: which lever moves SMS profit the most?
Modeled against your current inputs
Operator Playbook
1 Register A2P 10DLC before you send. Brand and campaign approval is the gate: since February 3, 2025, unregistered 10DLC traffic is blocked outright. File first, send second.
2 Segment ruthlessly. Broadcasts are a tax on the relationship. A list of 18,000 sent 6 broadcasts a month is one campaign. The same list sent 2 broadcasts plus 4 segmented flows (browse abandon, post-purchase, win-back, VIP) sends fewer messages that each match what the subscriber did.
3 Build the opt-in page like a conversion landing page. A clean SMS opt-in with a first-purchase discount, transparent expectations (4 msgs/mo, STOP to opt out), and a single CTA also makes consent records easy to keep. CTIA's guidelines list what to record: the timestamp, how consent was collected, the exact language shown, and the campaign it covers.
4 Monitor STOP rate weekly. Track opt-outs per send and watch the trend; a rising STOP rate is your earliest sign that cadence or content is off. Honor every opt-out: FCC rules require revocations made in any reasonable way, including replies like stop, quit, end, or cancel, to be honored within ten business days, and CTIA's guidelines call for one confirmation text and nothing after it.
5 Two-way SMS is where the margin is. One-way broadcasts are direct response. Two-way conversations are sales. The agent on the other end (human or AI) turns inbound replies into orders and bookings without adding send volume.

Free Detailed Report

Get the full SMS audit by email & SMS.

We'll send you a 5-page PDF with your numbers, the model defaults for your industry, the three specific cadence and segmentation levers most likely to move your ratio, an A2P 10DLC opt-in template, and a 30-minute strategy slot with the founder if you want one.

This calculator is about A2P, so this consent block is doubly meaningful You're sharing a mobile number with a tool that calculates SMS ROI. We treat your number with the same A2P 10DLC discipline we recommend on this page: single explicit opt-in, single confirmation text, one PDF delivery, optional follow-up only if you ask for the strategy call. STOP works instantly.
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Your SMS audit is on the way.

Check your email for your personalized report (and spam if needed). We'll use your number for follow-up from Nirvani when relevant. Sammy will personally reach out within 24 hours if you flagged the strategy-call option.

Meeting

How this calculator works

What formulas drive the numbers?
Five layers, all visible. monthlySends = subscribers x sendsPerMonth. From there: clicks = sends x CTR, orders = clicks x conversion, revenue = orders x AOV, sendCost = sends x perMessageCost. Monthly profit is revenue minus send cost. Profit per send is monthly profit divided by monthly sends, which is the only unit metric you should actually optimize against.
What are the actual A2P 10DLC requirements?
To text US customers from a 10DLC number, you need three things. (1) Brand registration through your messaging provider with The Campaign Registry: legal company name, EIN, address, vertical, and contact details, with a website strongly recommended. The most common rejection is a legal name and EIN that don't match federal records. (2) Campaign registration: the use case, sample messages (marketing campaigns need at least two), every opt-in method, and the STOP and HELP keywords and replies. (3) Compliant opt-in: CTIA's guidelines call for consent to receive messages, express written consent for marketing messages, and a call to action that names the program, the sender, message frequency, any fees, and how to opt out, with terms and a privacy policy. Since February 3, 2025, unregistered 10DLC traffic is blocked. This is general information, not legal advice.
Why does the profit curve bend down after 6 sends per month?
Because the model assumes it does. These are modeling assumptions, not measured laws. (1) Opt-out drag: for each send above 6 a month, the model cuts that month's profit by 9% (8 sends loses 18%), standing in for subscribers who opt out faster than they earn. (2) Click-through fatigue: the model trims click-through by 4% for each additional send in the month. Watch your own STOP rate per send to find your list's real limit. Segmented flows don't count against this budget. Broadcasts do.
How do you handle per-message cost variance?
The calculator takes a per-message cost as input because the answer depends on your provider, your message length (longer messages split into multiple billed segments), and the carrier mix in your list. Get a quote and plug it in. Registration fees are separate: The Campaign Registry's July 2026 price list shows $4.50 per brand submission and $10 a month for most campaign types, billed for at least 3 months. Use the sensitivity table to see how much your profit moves when the per-message cost changes.
Should I include flows (browse abandon, win-back) in this calculation?
No. This calculator models broadcasts only. Triggered flows have different economics because they're sent at the moment of intent. Model broadcasts here for an honest comparison, and layer flows on top in your detailed report.
Where do the model defaults come from?
Defaults are Nirvani's planning estimates for each industry, not figures from a cited study; they are not measured medians or customer results. Your numbers will vary by region, niche, and list source quality. If your actuals differ, your actuals are the truth. Defaults only set the slider starting points.